PRACRITI 2.0
PRACRITI, the acronym for Prediction, Response and Assessment of CoRona Infections and Transmission in India, is a mobile-friendly web portal that is freely accessible to everyone. It gives detailed state-wise predictions of COVID-19 and aims to provide details of verified resources for COVID-19 patients, including Oxygen cylinders, Hospital beds, Plasma donors, Online consultation, Vaccine availability and Helpline numbers across India. PRACRITI is developed and maintained by a group of volunteers from IIT Delhi.
FAQs
The COVID-19 predictions are based on a recent mathematical model, namely, Adaptive, Interacting, Cluster-based, Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Removed (AICSEIR) model. This is a modified form of the traditional SEIR model and it caters to the interactions between sub-populations such as districts or states. It represents a more realistic approach towards the prediction of the COVID-19 trajectory than the traditional SEIR models.
PRACRITI requires the population of each state, the distance between the capital cities of the states, the number of tourists visiting a state, and the initial infected population in a district (this could be zero as well).
PRACRITI was launched in April 2020 and has been continuously maintained eversince.
The predictions in PRACRITI are updated every week. It was last updated on May 06, 2021
In epidemiology, R0 is known as the basic reproduction number. R0 of infection refers to the number of people who are newly infected from a currently infected person. Reducing the R0 is the key to reducing the transmission of infections.
PRACRITI is the only model, to the best of our knowledge, which provides the state-wise R0 values on a continuous basis. This enables the identification of the rate of spread of the COVID19 in each of the states in India.
The predictions provided by PRACRITI can potentially guide governmental authorities, healthcare professionals, NGOs, and the general public on devising effective strategies for control and mitigation of COVID19. Using the Resources section, people can directly find resources like oxygen cylinders, hospital beds, plasma donors, vaccine centers and their availability and much more
The accuracy of the predictions will depend on the variations in the parameters, including different lockdown strategies implemented, weather variations, testing kits availability, and the development of any remedial measures. To account for these variabilities, the predictions are updated every week.
Yes, this model is flexible and can be applied to other regions/countries with suitable straightforward adaptations.
PRACRITI is a tool that will enable governments, healthcare authorities, and other agencies to develop efficient resource allocation strategies and control the spread of infection.
Team
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Faculty Mentors
Prof. N. M. Anoop Krishnan, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi
Prof. Amit Sharma, International Centre for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology -
Technical Support
Dr. Manish Agarwal, Computer Services Center, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi -
Contributers
Ravinder, PhD Research Scholar, Multiphysics & Multiscale Mechanics Research Group, IIT Delhi
Yashwant Lodhi, Project Staff, Multiphysics & Multiscale Mechanics Research Group, IIT Delhi
Aditya Singh, Undergraduate Student, IIT Delhi
Anurag Gupta, Undergraduate Student, IIT Delhi
Asmita Mehta, Undergraduate Student, IIT Delhi
Aviral Gupta, Undergraduate Student, IIT Delhi
Deepit Patil, Undergraduate Student, IIT Delhi
Sanat Vohra, Undergraduate Student, IIT Delhi
Shashwat Gokhe, Undergraduate Student, IIT Delhi
Radhika Agwan, Undergraduate Student, IIT Delhi
References
- Ravinder, R. et al. An Adaptive, Interacting, Cluster-based Model Accurately Predicts the Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19, 2020. (link)
- Keeling, M. J. & Rohani, P. Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals. (Princeton University Press, 2011).
- Adam, D. Special report: The simulations driving the world’s response to COVID-19. Nature 580, 316–318 (2020).